EdgeLedger
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Big-Up Ensemble (ML)

big_up_ensemble_v1

XGBoost + decision-tree ensemble on volume / book-flip / 30m-return features

Held-out test window (n=496 fires, 34K bars). Regime-dependent price-level condition — monitored for drift.
Lifetime WR46.6%
Profit factor1.60
Sample (n)496
Last 30d WR56.5%+9.9pp vs lifetime
Risk profile

Risk 1R to make 1.67R

1:1.7R
EntryRTH close of signal barmarket or limit
Stop15pt (MNQ)risk unit (1R)
Target25pt (MNQ)1.7R payoff

High frequency (~16 fires/day on test) — commission-sensitive. +$8.21/trade average on held-out month.

Backtest · all R:R combinations

Which stop / target combo works best?

R:R grid not yet backtested for this signal

stateful trigger — requires standalone simulation

Last 30 days · expectancy trend30 fires · last fire 4d ago
Stub · wiring to outcomes feed
Replay · coming next

See this edge on a real chart.

Click any of the last 10 fires below to open a snapshot of the market at signal time — bars, VWAP, confluences annotated. You'll be able to scrub forward to see how it resolved. Wiring to the outcomes feed next.

Last 10 fires · click to replay

Demo · outcomes feed wiring
WhenEntryR-multOutcome

Click any row to open the replay — chart snapshot + confluences at signal fire. Stub data until outcomes feed wires up.