EdgeLedger
31 edges · every outcome public

Signal sellers delete
their losers. We publish ours.

31 curated orderflow signals on MNQ, NQ, and ES — backtested across 171,000 one-minute bars, the survivors walk-forward validated on held-out data, pre-checked against your Apex or TopStep rule profile, and delivered with a copy-ready NT8 order blob.

171,000-bar backtest31 edges tracked5 walk-forward survivors4 live outcomes published
EdgeLedger · live terminal
streaming
Daily gamma map · QQQ dealer positioning → NQ

Where the dealers are pinned today.

30056.09 0.40%NQ · live (qqq×ratio) · walls 3:58 PM ET (last session) · auto-refresh 30s
prev 29937CALL 30240FLIP 2945330056
Call wall30240+186ptGamma flip29453-601ptPut wall28997-1057ptfull-book QQQ gamma · walls refresh ~2 min during RTH · same levels the bot trades
Walk-forward survivors lead · backtest-only follows

Every edge, at a glance.

Premium means held-out test positive — not a cherry-picked backtest. Each card surfaces WR, PF, sample size, R:R, and a 30-day regime tag.

See full catalog (31)
BOTHPremiumQuietDemo
1m

Exhaustion Fade (Signal A)

signal_a_exhaustion_fade

VP-level rejection + 1m FVG + exhaustion anti-confirms

Walk-forward survivor — test WR improved on train (43%→50%). Small held-out sample (n=24 of 147 total fires); live shadow validation is the primary confirmation path.
1:1.5R8pt stop · 12pt targetdefault
Apex 50K · n/a< 5 fires · 30d
30d trend · demo2 fires
WR50.0%
PF1.82
n24
BUYPremiumHotDemo
1m

Big-Up Ensemble (ML)

big_up_ensemble_v1

XGBoost + decision-tree ensemble on volume / book-flip / 30m-return features

Held-out test window (n=496 fires, 34K bars). Regime-dependent price-level condition — monitored for drift.
1:1.7R15pt stop · 25pt target
Apex 50K · clean0 violations · 30d
30d trend · demo+9.9pp 30d
WR46.6%
PF1.60
n496
BUYPremiumQuietDemo
daily

Down-Close Bounce (F1)

downclose_bounce_f1

prior day closes in bottom quartile of its RTH range + next day is Mon-Thu → buy the 9:30 open, hold to close

6/6 walk-forward windows positive, permutation p=0.001 vs matched random days. Live shadow tracker running since 2026-07-08. Crisis-weighted returns; long-only by design (short mirror rejected).
1:1.5Rsize on entrydefault
Apex 50K · n/a< 5 fires · 30d
30d trend · demo3 fires
WR58.6%
PF1.51
n307
SELLPremiumHotDemo
1m

Month-End 3:50 Rebalance Short

close_short_month_end

day-of-month ≥ 26 + not Friday → short at 15:50 ET into the cash close (pension rebalance flow)

Stats are the held-out TEST window (2023-26); train window agreed (56.9%/+1.62). 7 of 8 years positive.
1:1R15pt stop · 15pt target
Apex 50K · clean0 violations · 30d
30d trend · demo+10.3pp 30d
WR55.3%
PF1.28
n114
BOTHPremiumCoolDemo
5m

Breaker Retest

breaker_retest

price inside 5m breaker zone + delta confirms + trend aligned

62.4% is the 7-year walk-forward re-audit (supersedes the earlier 64.8% in-sample figure). Muted Mon/Wed/Thu live per day-of-week analysis.
1:2R10pt stop · 20pt targetdefault
Apex 50K · risky5 hits · 30d
30d trend · demo-13.7pp 30d
WR62.4%
PF
n4,242
SELLStandardCoolDemo
1m

Delta Extremes Short

delta_extremes_sell

aof_delta_at_high ≤ 159 AND aof_delta_at_low ≤ −381

In-sample backtest — walk-forward audit pending before promotion.
1:1.5R12pt stop · 18pt target
Apex 50K · clean0 violations · 30d
30d trend · demo-12.6pp 30d
WR72.5%
PF3.30
n211
Live ledger · trailing 30d

Receipts, not marketing.

Every fire, every loss — computed live from the outcome feed. 4 resolved signals on the ledger so far; it grows automatically as fires resolve.

Full performance page
Signals resolved4all-time · live
Win rate50.0%2 wins · 2 losses
Expectancy+0.50Rresolved-weighted
Best edgeunlocks at 3 resolved/edge

Small sample early on — that's what a real ledger looks like at the start. It only grows.

Watching is free. The ledger does the convincing.

Join free on Whop
Research log · public

Every edge, validated in the open.

We publish what's promoting, what's failing, and what we're testing next. Nothing goes live without a backtest you can inspect.

Full research log
2026-07-08promoting
Down-Close Bounce (F1) ships to live shadowBuy the open after a bottom-quartile close, Mon-Thu. 6/6 walk-forward windows positive over 7 years, permutation p=0.001, +27pt/trade net. Live shadow tracker now posting daily.
2026-07-08rejected
102 popular TradingView mechanisms — zero survivedTrend-flips, oscillators, squeeze plays, ICT combos: ~200 walk-forward tests, 0 ship. If a mechanism is on every YouTube channel, assume it's priced out. We publish this so you don't pay for it elsewhere.
2026-07-08rejected
Weekly volume-profile family closed5,864 level touches vs placebo controls: VAH/VAL/POC location, dynamics, and LVN reactions all fail against shifted fake levels. Two legacy catalog edges retracted as artifacts.
2026-07-08rejected
'Double break' opening-range folklore — all 18 variants killedEvery version loses to time-matched random entries (p≈1.0). The '70% resolve by noon' premise is actually ~31-37% on MNQ.
2026-04-28rejected
fvg_retest 69.5% claim retracted5-month re-audit on live bars measured 33.5% for the original config. Re-scoped to the first-touch variant (37.8%, 4/4 walk-forward folds) and demoted from premium. This page said 69.5% — it was wrong, now it doesn't.
How it works

Three steps. No trust required.

01

An edge survives validation

Cost-adjusted backtest, walk-forward on held-out data, permutation controls, live shadow tracking. Most candidates die here — we publish the kills too.

Read the methodology
02

It fires, stamped and delivered

Alerts hit Discord with entry, stop, target, size, and a prop-firm rule check — each one sealed into a tamper-evident hash chain the moment it's emitted.

See the feed
03

The outcome publishes itself

Win or lose, every resolution lands on the public ledger automatically. There is no editorial step between the database and this website.

Open the ledger
Bring your own broker

Your keys. Your account. Our signals.

EdgeLedger never holds broker credentials. Every signal ships with a copy-ready NT8 ATI block today; automated execution tiers are in development.

Full BYOD breakdown
Built to work with
RithmicNinjaTrader 8TradovatesoonTradeStationsoonInteractive BrokerssoonApex Trader FundingTopStepTradeDaysoonTradingView

Copy-to-NT8

Live

Every card ships an NT8 ATI blob. Paste, review, send. You never surrender control.

Webhook bridge

In development

Signed POST on every fire. Pipe into SignalStack, TradingView alerts, or your own server.

NT8 auto-strategy

In development

Signed .cs file. Validates against your Apex or TopStep rule profile before submitting an order.

Pricing

Pricing that waits for proof.

No fake countdowns, no slashed prices. The paid tier stays locked until the live ledger earns it — 25 published outcomes, wins and losses, hash-chained. Watch the gate fill from the free tier.

Paid-tier gate4 of 25 live outcomes published

Free

Live now
$0forever

The daily plan and the ledger, free — watch it prove itself.

Daily plan
  • Pre-market plan every trading day: prior session, overnight range, scenarios
  • Validated calendar edges flagged when armed
Gamma & levels
  • Daily dealer gamma map, converted to NQ points
  • Call wall · gamma flip · put wall, refreshed intraday
Receipts
  • Every outcome posted to Discord automatically
  • Public ledger + research log, retractions included
Community
  • EdgeLedger Discord
Join free on WhopNo card required

Founding

Limited · price locked for life
$99/month

Everything in the paid tier, at the price that never rises for you.

Signals
  • Every live fire: entry, stop, target, size
  • Apex / TopStep rule check on each alert
  • Copy-ready NT8 order blob
Terminal
  • Live gamma terminal: per-strike GEX, greeks, regime, engine record (preview open now)
Integrity
  • Hash-chained alert log — tamper-evident
  • Same public ledger grades every fire
Founding perks
  • $99 locked for life (rises to $149 after)
  • Founding-member Discord channel
Get notified — join freeFounding seats announced to free members first

Standard

Opens with the gate
$149/month

Same signals, same receipts — after the founding window closes.

Signals
  • Every live fire: entry, stop, target, size
  • Apex / TopStep rule check on each alert
  • Copy-ready NT8 order blob
Terminal
  • Live gamma terminal: per-strike GEX, greeks, regime, engine record
Integrity
  • Hash-chained alert log — tamper-evident
  • Same public ledger grades every fire
Audit the ledger firstCancel anytime via Whop

Why founding? Early members carry the proving period — the discount is payment for that, not a marketing trick.

FAQ

Fair questions.

Why would you publish your losses?

Because a win rate you can't audit is worth nothing. Every alert is sealed into a hash chain the moment it fires, and every resolution — target or stop — lands on the public ledger automatically. If we deleted a loser, the chain would show it. That constraint is the product.

How do signals arrive?

Discord, in real time. Each fire is an embed with entry, stop, target, position size under a $500-risk cap, a prop-firm rule check, and a copy-ready NT8 order block. Free members get the daily pre-market plan, the gamma map, and the outcome feed; paid members get the fires.

What is walk-forward validation?

The backtest is split in time: rules are fit on older data, then judged only on data they never saw, window after window. Most of our candidates die there — about 100 popular TradingView mechanisms went 0-for-200 in our tests. The survivors are what we ship. Full detail on the methodology page.

What markets do you cover?

NQ and MNQ futures, with some ES/MES setups. One market, covered deeply — order flow, dealer gamma, seven years of one-minute history — instead of forty markets covered thinly.

When does the paid tier open?

When the live ledger reaches 25 published outcomes. Until then nobody can pay us — the gate meter above is computed from the same outcome feed as the performance page. Founding seats at $99 are announced to free members first and that price never rises for them.

Will this work with my prop firm?

Alerts are pre-checked against Apex and TopStep rule profiles — position size and daily-loss headroom — before they reach you. The check is best-effort; your account agreement is the final word.

Do I need special software?

No. Discord is the only requirement. The NT8 order block is optional convenience for NinjaTrader users; there's no indicator to install, no Bookmap license, no platform lock-in.

What happens when an edge stops working?

It gets demoted or retracted, publicly, with the numbers that killed it. We've already done it — a 69.5% claim was re-audited to 33.5% and retracted on the research log. Decay is normal; hiding it is the scam.

Can I cancel?

Anytime, through Whop, effective at the end of the billing period. No lock-in, no exit interview.

Is this financial advice?

No. EdgeLedger is a research publication with a public track record. Futures trading carries substantial risk of loss; trade only risk capital and make your own decisions.

Watch the ledger fill up.
Free, from day one.

Free members get the daily pre-market plan, the dealer gamma map, and the receipts feed in Discord — every outcome, posted automatically. The paid signals tier opens when the live engine has a public track record to charge for. That's the whole funnel: watch first, pay when it's proven.

No card required · cancel anytime · every loss published