PremiumbuyQuietdaily

Down-Close Bounce (F1)

downclose_bounce_f1

prior day closes in bottom quartile of its RTH range + next day is Mon-Thu → buy the 9:30 open, hold to close

⚠ 6/6 walk-forward windows positive, permutation p=0.001 vs matched random days. Live shadow tracker running since 2026-07-08. Crisis-weighted returns; long-only by design (short mirror rejected).

Lifetime WR58.6%

Profit factor1.51

Sample (n)307

Last 30d WR—

Risk profile

Risk 1R to make 1.5R

default R:R for this timeframe · curated per-edge values coming

1:1.5R

EntryRTH close of signal barmarket or limit

Stop—risk unit (1R)

Target—1.5R payoff

Stop = entry − 2.0×ATR20 of prior-day range (WIDE — size accordingly), pure time exit at 16:00 ET. +27pt/trade net over 7 years. Scale-outs and breakeven stops tested and REJECTED — the edge is the fat right tail.

Backtest · all R:R combinations

Which stop / target combo works best?

R:R grid not yet backtested for this signal

stateful trigger — requires standalone simulation

Last 30 days · expectancy trend3 fires · last fire 8d ago

Stub · wiring to outcomes feed

Replay · coming next

See this edge on a real chart.

Click any of the last 10 fires below to open a snapshot of the market at signal time — bars, VWAP, confluences annotated. You'll be able to scrub forward to see how it resolved. Wiring to the outcomes feed next.

Last 10 fires · click to replay

Demo · outcomes feed wiring

WhenEntryR-multOutcome

Click any row to open the replay — chart snapshot + confluences at signal fire. Stub data until outcomes feed wires up.