EdgeLedger
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Filter every edge.

31 signals total. Pick tier + side to narrow down. Click any card to open the full backtest detail.

Tier
Side31 of 31
BUYPremiumQuietDemo
daily

Down-Close Bounce (F1)

downclose_bounce_f1

prior day closes in bottom quartile of its RTH range + next day is Mon-Thu → buy the 9:30 open, hold to close

WR58.6%
PF1.51
n307
6/6 walk-forward windows positive, permutation p=0.001 vs matched random days. Live shadow tracker running since 2026-07-08. Crisis-weighted returns; long-only by design (short mirror rejected).
1:1.5Rsize on entrydefault
Apex 50K · n/a< 5 fires · 30d
30d trend · demo3 fires
SELLPremiumHotDemo
1m

Month-End 3:50 Rebalance Short

close_short_month_end

day-of-month ≥ 26 + not Friday → short at 15:50 ET into the cash close (pension rebalance flow)

WR55.3%
PF1.28
n114
Stats are the held-out TEST window (2023-26); train window agreed (56.9%/+1.62). 7 of 8 years positive.
1:1R15pt stop · 15pt target
Apex 50K · clean0 violations · 30d
30d trend · demo+10.3pp 30d
BOTHPremiumQuietDemo
1m

Exhaustion Fade (Signal A)

signal_a_exhaustion_fade

VP-level rejection + 1m FVG + exhaustion anti-confirms

WR50.0%
PF1.82
n24
Walk-forward survivor — test WR improved on train (43%→50%). Small held-out sample (n=24 of 147 total fires); live shadow validation is the primary confirmation path.
1:1.5R8pt stop · 12pt targetdefault
Apex 50K · n/a< 5 fires · 30d
30d trend · demo2 fires
BUYPremiumHotDemo
1m

Big-Up Ensemble (ML)

big_up_ensemble_v1

XGBoost + decision-tree ensemble on volume / book-flip / 30m-return features

WR46.6%
PF1.60
n496
Held-out test window (n=496 fires, 34K bars). Regime-dependent price-level condition — monitored for drift.
1:1.7R15pt stop · 25pt target
Apex 50K · clean0 violations · 30d
30d trend · demo+9.9pp 30d
BOTHPremiumCoolDemo
5m

Breaker Retest

breaker_retest

price inside 5m breaker zone + delta confirms + trend aligned

WR62.4%
PF—
n4,242
62.4% is the 7-year walk-forward re-audit (supersedes the earlier 64.8% in-sample figure). Muted Mon/Wed/Thu live per day-of-week analysis.
1:2R10pt stop · 20pt targetdefault
Apex 50K · risky5 hits · 30d
30d trend · demo-13.7pp 30d
SELLStandardCoolDemo
1m

Delta Extremes Short

delta_extremes_sell

aof_delta_at_high ≤ 159 AND aof_delta_at_low ≤ −381

WR72.5%
PF3.30
n211
In-sample backtest — walk-forward audit pending before promotion.
1:1.5R12pt stop · 18pt target
Apex 50K · clean0 violations · 30d
30d trend · demo-12.6pp 30d
BUYStandardQuietDemo
1m

Panic Reversal Long

buy_panic_reversal

book bearish + tape bullish + 20+pt drop in 20 bars + high volume

WR76.2%
PF2.44
n21
Small backtest sample (n=21). 7-day live replay ran 60% — tracking live before any promotion.
1:2R10pt stop · 20pt target
Apex 50K · n/a< 5 fires · 30d
30d trend · demo1 fires
SELLStandardCoolDemo
1m

Monday NY Sell (VWAP)

vwap_sell_monday_ny

below prev-wk VAH + NY VWAP > sVWAP + above prev-day VAH + Monday + delta < −100

WR61.1%
PF2.28
n72
In-sample backtest — walk-forward audit pending.
1:2R10pt stop · 20pt target
Apex 50K · clean0 violations · 30d
30d trend · demo-8.9pp 30d
SELLStandardStableDemo
1m

Session VWAP Value Return Short

svwap_cross_above_dev_val_sell

session VWAP was below dev VAL, now crossed above

WR51.0%
PF1.60
n371
1:1R6pt stop · 6pt targetdefault
Apex 50K · ok1 soft · 30d
30d trend · demo-2.3pp 30d
BUYStandardCoolDemo
1m

Hidden Buying (ML)

ml_buy_hidden_buying

bid_depth ≤ 50 + tick_count > 14 + buy_icebergs > 211 + cum_delta > 6,695

WR50.8%
PF2.15
n120
1:1R6pt stop · 6pt targetdefault
Apex 50K · ok2 soft · 30d
30d trend · demo-12.1pp 30d
BUYStandardCoolDemo
1m

Naked Liquidity Below Buy

naked_below_buy

aof_naked_below in 0.5–54 AND aof_naked_above ≤ 2.5

WR49.9%
PF2.24
n744
1:1R6pt stop · 6pt targetdefault
Apex 50K · clean0 violations · 30d
30d trend · demo-10.4pp 30d
BUYStandardCoolDemo
1m

NY Extension Fade Long

ny_regime_fade_long

transition into BELOW_ALL_3 (sVWAP + NY VWAP + prev-day NY VAL) during NY

WR48.7%
PF1.35
n669
1:1R6pt stop · 6pt targetdefault
Apex 50K · clean0 violations · 30d
30d trend · demo-9.8pp 30d
SELLStandardStableDemo
1m

NY VWAP Above Value Extension Short

nvwap_cross_above_dev_vah_sell

NY VWAP was below dev VAH, now crossed above · NY session only

WR46.3%
PF1.45
n175
1:1R6pt stop · 6pt targetdefault
Apex 50K · clean0 violations · 30d
30d trend · demo-2.9pp 30d
SELLStandardHotDemo
1m

Single Prints Sell

single_prints_sell

fp_single_prints_below > 0 AND fp_single_prints_above in 6–16

WR45.2%
PF1.40
n4,448
57% on most recent 7-day live replay — running hotter live than backtest.
1:1R6pt stop · 6pt targetdefault
Apex 50K · clean0 violations · 30d
30d trend · demo+3.5pp 30d
SELLStandardHotDemo
1m

NY Extension Fade Short

ny_regime_fade_short

transition into ABOVE_ALL_3 (sVWAP + NY VWAP + prev-day NY VAH) during NY

WR44.0%
PF1.34
n712
1:1R6pt stop · 6pt targetdefault
Apex 50K · risky4 hits · 30d
30d trend · demo+5.0pp 30d
SELLStandardCoolDemo
1m

Below Prev-Day Low Breakdown Sell

below_pdl_breakdown_sell

session_range_pos < 0.05 AND close < prev_day_low

WR40.3%
PF1.34
n5,011
1:1R6pt stop · 6pt targetdefault
Apex 50K · clean0 violations · 30d
30d trend · demo-12.8pp 30d
BOTHStandardCoolDemo
15m

FVG First-Touch Retest

fvg_retest

first touch of a fresh 15m FVG zone (N1) + delta confirms + trend aligned

WR37.8%
PF1.22
n969
Honesty note: an earlier version of this page showed 69.5% WR. A 5-month re-audit on live bars measured 33.5% for that config — the claim was retracted and the edge re-scoped to the first-touch variant shown here.
1:2R20pt stop · 40pt target
Apex 50K · clean0 violations · 30d
30d trend · demo-9.5pp 30d
BUYBetaQuietDemo
1m

10AM ET Buy (VWAP)

vwap_buy_h14_delta

above prev-wk VAH + NY VWAP > sVWAP + NOT above prev-day NY POC + hour 14 UTC + delta > 0

WR68.4%
PF2.96
n19
n=19 — too small to trust yet.
1:1R6pt stop · 6pt targetdefault
Apex 50K · n/a< 5 fires · 30d
30d trend · demo2 fires
BUYBetaQuietDemo
1m

STRUCT5 Long (lottery)

struct5_bull_reversal

V-shape + SSL sweep + below VWAP + NY + cum-delta divergence + fib OTE (all 5)

WR29.0%
PF2.10
n31
Lottery-ticket profile: low WR, big winners. PF 2.1 despite 29% WR.
1:1R6pt stop · 6pt targetdefault
Apex 50K · n/a< 5 fires · 30d
30d trend · demo3 fires
SELLBetaHotDemo
1m

Absorption-Confirmed Sell (booster)

sell_absorb_confirm

Base SELL signal + any wall absorption in last 120s (real defender confirms short)

WR79.5%
PF—
n607
In-sample polarity study — validating live as a confluence filter, not a standalone edge.
1:3R30pt stop · 90pt target
Apex 50K · risky6 hits · 30d
30d trend · demo+3.3pp 30d
INFOInfoQuietDemo
daily

Inside-Day Expansion Alert

inside_day_expansion

prev day = inside day + close above daily EMA20

WR56.2%
PF—
n16
1:1.5Rsize on entrydefault
Apex 50K · n/a< 5 fires · 30d
30d trend · demo1 fires
INFOInfoHotDemo
1m

Hidden Buyers — Avoid Short

iceberg_bid_heavy_avoid_short

aof_iceberg_imbalance between −0.99 and −0.42

WR13.7%
PF—
n862
1:1R8pt stop · 8pt targetdefault
Apex 50K · clean0 violations · 30d
30d trend · demo+11.5pp 30d
INFOInfoStableDemo
1m

Dead Market — Don't Buy

ml_buy_avoid_zone

deep bids + quiet book + low volume + no buy confluence

WR5.6%
PF—
n4,748
1:1R8pt stop · 8pt targetdefault
Apex 50K · ok1 soft · 30d
30d trend · demo-5.6pp 30d
INFOInfoQuietDemo
1m

Dead Market — Don't Short

ml_sell_avoid_zone

volume ≤ 369 AND l2_ask_depth > 78

WR0.0%
PF—
n0
no fires yet — still warming up
1:1R8pt stop · 8pt targetdefault
Apex 50K · n/a< 5 fires · 30d
30d trend · demo0 fires
PUTStandardQuietDemo
daily · 3d

Big-Range Day Put

put_big_range

today's range > 1.8× 20-day avg (exhaustion fade)

WR88.0%
PF—
n25
In-sample, n=25 — small sample.
1:1R1.5% target / 1.5% stopdefault
Apex 50K · n/a< 5 fires · 30d
30d trend · demo2 fires
PUTStandardQuietDemo
daily · 5d

Extended Gap-Up Put

put_extended_gap_up

above EMA50 AND gap > +0.375 (big gap up above EMA50)

WR83.3%
PF—
n30
In-sample, n=30.
1:1.5R1.5% target / 1.5% stopdefault
Apex 50K · n/a< 5 fires · 30d
30d trend · demo1 fires
PUTStandardQuietDemo
daily · 3d

Overextended EMA20 Put

put_overextended_above_ema

normal-range day + close 1.9%+ above EMA20

WR70.3%
PF—
n37
1:1R1.5% target / 1.5% stopdefault
Apex 50K · n/a< 5 fires · 30d
30d trend · demo0 fires
CALLStandardQuietDemo
daily · 3d

EMA20 Pullback Call

call_pullback_below_ema

close 1.4%+ below EMA20 (reversion buy)

WR61.8%
PF—
n34
1:1R1.5% target / 1.5% stopdefault
Apex 50K · n/a< 5 fires · 30d
30d trend · demo0 fires
CALLStandardQuietDemo
daily · 5d

Bull Close Near Highs Call

call_bull_close_near_highs

non-overextended + normal range + close in top 16% of day

WR53.3%
PF—
n30
1:1.5R1.5% target / 1.5% stopdefault
Apex 50K · n/a< 5 fires · 30d
30d trend · demo1 fires
STRADDLEStandardQuietDemo
daily · 3d

Bearish EMA Stack Straddle

straddle_bear_stack

close < EMA20 < EMA50 (big move either way, typically down)

WR96.4%
PF—
n28
In-sample, n=28 — a 96% figure on a small sample should be read as 'promising', not proven.
1:1R1.5% target / 1.5% stopdefault
Apex 50K · n/a< 5 fires · 30d
30d trend · demo0 fires
STRADDLEStandardQuietDemo
daily · 5d

Far Below EMA20 Straddle

straddle_far_below_ema

close 2.1%+ below EMA20 (high volatility regime)

WR100.0%
PF—
n22
In-sample, n=22 — 100% on 22 events will not hold; expect regression.
1:1.5R1.5% target / 1.5% stopdefault
Apex 50K · n/a< 5 fires · 30d
30d trend · demo0 fires